SUBURBS CONTINUE TO OUTPACE CITIES IN GROWTH, DESPITE MOCO POLITICIANS' PREDICTIONS OTHERWISE

Lawns. Backyards. Trees. Cleaner air. Supersize SUVs. Low crime. Peace and quiet. Free parking. Strip malls. Indoor malls. Full-size parks. Drive-thru dining. Good schools. And $2.11 gas* - (in Chevy Chase, Maryland?!)

Americans still want all of the above. They want the suburban lifestyle, and are voting for it with their pocketbooks and mortgage checks, according to the latest trend study by real estate website Trulia. And you can expect that trend to continue, says Trulia's Chief Economist Jed Kolko, Ph.D.

The latest figures and anecdotal evidence suggest that millennials are heading for the exits in "hip" urban areas, priced out by the recent real estate boom in urban multifamily housing, and seeking to escape poor schools and higher rates of crime. Even in urban areas where murders may be reduced, frequent burglaries, auto break-ins, and thefts of packages delivered are more than mere annoyances for all but the heartiest of gentrifiers.

Last year, population growth of suburbs again outpaced that of cities, and the Trulia study confirms it was not an anomaly, despite media hype that has tried to suggest the suburbs are dying.

In July 2013, Montgomery County Councilmember George Leventhal (D-At-Large) declared the suburbs were "a mistake." (Kind of ironic, for a Councilmember who lives in the suburbs himself, and represents a majority-suburban jurisdiction, don't you think?) The County Council, with the exception of Marc Elrich (D-At-Large), has voted repeatedly to urbanize the suburban areas of the county. Yet the studies show they are out of step with reality, and what the public is demanding in 2015.

"Today, the vast majority of young renters aspire to own," Kolko writes. "Homeownership remains core to the American Dream. The future of the suburbs looks bright," he concludes.

"As millennials get older, many will follow a familiar path: They’ll partner up, have kids, and move to the suburbs. Urban living starts to decline after ages 25-29," Kolko notes.

Kolko suggests that the appearance of the average age dropping in urban areas in the last decade was more a result of older people fleeing cities, than of millennials moving in. In fact, the number of people over 45 living in urban areas has dropped since 2013, the study indicates.

The Trulia study dovetails perfectly with the evidence and sentiments in the Washington Post article linked to above, in that young people are not planning to stick with urban living for more than a few years. And suburban residents are more satisfied, and more likely to say they're staying where they live now for the long haul.

"Urban residents feel the tug of the suburbs. For every 10 suburbanites who said they wanted to live in an urban area in five years, 16 urban dwellers said they wished to live in the suburbs. Even among young adults aged 18-34— who are more likely to live in urban areas than older adults are—more wanted to move from city to suburbs than the other way around," Kolko says.

Pressure by developers to urbanize suburban areas like Westbard in Bethesda, Twinbrook in Rockville, and White Oak in Silver Spring is driven by the pursuit of profits. But examining the current trends and data suggests the desires of the developers and County Council do not match what the majority of Americans are seeking today - the suburban lifestyle. 

*Regular gas is $2.11 a gallon at the Giant gas station at 8500 Connecticut Avenue, in Chevy Chase Lake, as of this writing. Source: GasBuddy.com

Photo: Library of Congress Online Collection

ROCKVILLE MAN MISSING (PHOTO)

Montgomery County Police are searching for a Rockville resident who has disappeared, and was last seen 5 days ago on Gude Drive.

Marc Phillipe Jean-Pie Latimer was last seen on January 17, 2015, in the 600 block of East Gude Drive.  Mr. Latimer is a black male, age 29, stands 5'11" and weighs 165 pounds, with black hair and brown eyes, according to police.

Police say they are concerned about Mr. Latimer's physical and emotional welfare. Anyone with information regarding the whereabouts of Mr. Latimer is asked to contact the Montgomery County Police at 301-279-8000.

ROCKVILLE APFS DISCUSSION AT PLANNING COMMISSION FINDS INCREASING SKEPTICISM OF PROPOSAL

The more Rockville's Planning Commissioners analyze and discuss the proposed changes to school capacity standards in the city's Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance, the less convinced they are of the wisdom in adopting them. Several commissioners have expressed doubt that the proposal to adopt Montgomery County's weaker 120% overcrowding cap - and assess capacity by cluster rather than by individual school - is necessary, viable, or even Constitutional.

"I would actually contend that it’s a violation of your Constitutional rights to equal protection when it comes to public schools," to measure capacity by cluster, Commissioner David Hill argued. Hill found it ironic that many MCPS policies are "based on that specific premise." Adopting the proposed changes would be "incredible. Criminal? Yeah, I suppose, if you violate someone’s Constitutional rights," Hill concluded. The matter is "a question of principle," he said.

Commissioner Jack Leiderman noted that the current language exempting senior housing from traffic standards would allow an automobile-dependent mega-retirement community the size of Leisure World to be built in the City of Rockville, and still be exempt from the standards - an oversight Leiderman described as "mind-numbingly stupid." "I think you have a good logical point about that, it makes sense," Hill concurred.

Leiderman went on to demolish the case that proponents of the changes have made on several points.

"It basically eliminates everything that the city had put into place to more accurately count school demand," he said, removing "the protection that it gave city residents." Alluding to the obvious developer support for the proposal, Leiderman suggested passage of the legislation would be "basically a complete deregulation of the development industry in the city."

Language that would allow extension of queue dates for individual developments was too weak to account for the fact that a developer could always claim that lack of school construction funds from the state of Maryland were an issue. Leiderman predicted developers could exploit that "ad infinitum. The way this is constructed, you’ve got all this language in here that looks like we’re doing something, when in fact we’re not doing squat to protect the schools, or the citizens, if this unfortunate piece of legislation were to pass," Leiderman said. "Eloquently put," Commissioner John Tyner seconded.

Use of the MCPS 5-year test and cluster averaging will be "an elaborate shell game” to cover-up the overcrowding of city schools, Leiderman said. It's the "distorting effect of cluster averaging and the 5-year test" that allows MCPS to currently run schools at 180% capacity, even when it claims a 120% cap exists. Faced with development moratoriums, Leiderman said, MCPS will cite "paper schools" where there will be capacity in 5 years. But it’s a "fictitious school" that never actually gets built, while the proposed development does. Under that scenario, "you’re not even adopting a 120 - you’re not even adopting a 180," Leiderman argued.

Citing City Councilmember Tom Moore's recent grilling of his colleagues who oppose the changes, Leiderman found a double standard on the use of data. "The leading proponent of this legislation was sort of torturing his colleagues recently about their positions not being data-driven, and I had to just laugh out loud. Because this is not only not data-driven, but it’s ignoring the data that we have, which says that the schools that operate under this are in horrible condition," Leiderman recalled. Echoing the argument of Mayor Bridget Newton, Leiderman made the case that the current APFS standards have succeeded in not only protecting Rockville students from overcrowding worse than today's, but have actually resulted in new schools getting built. "We in fact have [new schools] coming online…ahead of a lot of the other areas in the county, despite" the APFO. He said that fact suggests "the impetus behind [changing the APFS] is extraordinarily specious, and unsupported by the data. I wish that the people who are behind this would actually tell us the real reason why they want this to happen."

Tyner implored the city to consider the impact on core facilities at schools, not just classrooms. "Beall no longer has playgrounds anywhere, neither does Twinbrook," Tyner noted. Core facilities are "the things that really determine if kids get a good education or not," Tyner said. "We’re only talking about classrooms."

One other interesting point not often brought up is that tying city standards to the County would leave Rockville bound to any future changes MCPS would make to its current standards, for better or for worse. Senior Assistant City Attorney Marcy Waxman confirmed that would be the case, after Commissioner Charles Littlefield questioned why the language couldn't be simpler in noting that link.

The Mayor and Council are currently scheduled to act on the proposal in early February, and residents can speak on the matter at a public hearing this coming Monday.

SECOND PUBLIC HEARING ON ROCKVILLE APFS SCHOOL STANDARDS MONDAY, JAN. 26

The Mayor and Council will hold a second public hearing on the proposed changes to Rockville's Adequate Public Facilities Standards regarding school capacity, which have been proposed by Councilmember Tom Moore, on Monday, January 26. These changes would adopt Montgomery County's weaker school standard of permitting 120% overcrowding, and allow school capacity to be measured by cluster, rather than by individual schools, as the city does today.

Residents can sign up to speak by calling the City Clerk at 240-314-8280 by 4:00 PM on January 26. The meeting will be held at 7:00 PM at City Hall, and the public hearing is only one item on the evening's agenda. You can also sign up in person, but you will have to wait until the speakers who signed up in advance are finished.

One public hearing has already been held, and the Mayor and Council are scheduled to act on the proposals in February.

82 STEAK OUT CLOSES AT ROCKVILLE TOWN SQUARE (PHOTOS)

Another closure at struggling Rockville Town Square. 82 Steak Out, a well-reviewed and reasonably-priced steakhouse, has closed. Friday was its last night of operation. The restaurant, which opened slightly less than a year ago, had just received a rave review from the notoriously Montgomery County-averse Washington Post in November. A disappointing finish, but the reception bodes well for any future ventures by the owners. These pictures showing a darkened restaurant were taken at the height of the dinner hours Saturday night.

MAYOR TO DELIVER ROCKVILLE'S STATE OF THE CITY ADDRESS ON JANUARY 29

Mayor Bridget Newton will deliver Rockville's 2015 State of the City address on Thursday, January 29, at 7:00 PM, at the F. Scott Fitzgerald Theatre. The theatre is located in Rockville Civic Center Park, at 603 Edmonston Drive. The speech is free and open to the public.

Newton's theme will be "Rockville: The City that Energizes."

A reception will follow in the theatre's lobby.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY WHIPPED BY NORTHERN VA AGAIN

More evidence of Montgomery County's moribund economic development climate comes from commercial real estate firm CRBE's DC Tech Pulse: Metro Office Leasing Activity Snapshot report from December 2014. The study found that Northern Virginia's tech-related leases accounted for a full 70% of the region's total tech leasing activity in 2014. The DC suburbs in Maryland had a paltry 19%, in comparison.

While the study does reflect the success Montgomery County has had in the biotech sector, it shows several of the weaknesses we need to address in future economic development efforts. According to the report, Northern Virginia's tech leasing dominance was driven by high-tech and aerospace firms. Biotech is an important but small niche by comparison, and we can't compete on that alone.

In fact, the top 2014 lease in Northern Virginia, according to the report, was Northrop Grumman, who chose Virginia over Montgomery County in a humiliating defeat for politicians on this side of the river in 2010. Northrop occupies a full 309,757 SF at its Fairfax County space. The two next-largest tech tenants in Northern Virginia? Yep, both aerospace/defense firms - Argon ST and Boeing.

Now check out Montgomery County - the report cites 0% leasing by aerospace and defense firms in 2014. Zero! The county's largest tech lease in 2014? JDSU, a technology services firm in Germantown, with 45,726 SF, paltry in comparison to Northrop's.

The report also cites the proximity of Northern Virginia's "strong concentration of highly educated young knowledge workers" to that area's tech, defense and aerospace firms, a workforce Montgomery County has struggled to attract. Recent efforts to boost MoCo's nightlife have fizzled, leaving downtown Bethesda with less nightlife than it had just a few years ago. The County Council's efforts to make Uber and Lyft fares more expensive, ban e-cigarettes where traditional cigarettes are banned, and approval of the closure of Dave and Buster's are unlikely to increase the county's appeal to millennials.

How can Montgomery County revive its floundering economy? Better economic development incentives, a more business-friendly climate, a greater appeal to young professionals, and investments in highway infrastructure. The county had $4 million to spend, and put it toward securing a Costco store in Wheaton. By contrast, Arlington County paid the same amount to bring the Corporate Executive Board to a new Rosslyn office tower. CEB brought a couple thousand jobs, plus plans to add 800 new ones that average $100,000 in salary. Not exactly Costco wages, and only Montgomery County would try to use a Costco store as an economic development trophy.

What brings millennials to Northern Virginia and DC? Two big factors - high-wage jobs and (in only relative terms) affordable housing. Not luxury apartments. While nightlife is important, there's a reason new graduates across America move to Washington, DC rather than Las Vegas. Montgomery County hasn't added a single major corporate headquarters in over a decade, meaning it hasn't added any significant number of non-government high-wage jobs in more than 10 years. It also is demolishing affordable apartments in desirable areas like Bethesda, including The Hampden and several buildings on Battery Lane. Talk of redeveloping the Bradley Boulevard corridor suggests lower-cost housing currently rented by millennials there could vanish, as well.

Finally, there's no getting around (pun intended) Montgomery County's traffic gridlock, and lack of Dulles Airport access. Northern Virginia's job centers like Tysons Corner have far superior access to interstate highways and airports. The big international firms also demand direct access to Dulles Airport, and Montgomery County has failed to plan for or build the new Potomac River bridge that could provide such access. As such, firms continue to choose Northern Virginia. In fact, one perk in Virginia's incentive package for Northrop was a discount lease for its corporate jet at a Dulles Airport hangar. Not a Bus Rapid Transit pass.

Oops.